🔗 Share this article

China has sent its coast guard into the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near remote Japan's territory as China ramps up tensions over the Japan's leader's comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its vessels conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the military option. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by China would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the island over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from China since the Japanese official made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.